Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Popper's falsification expressed in Bayesian terms

Popper's idea that there is only falsification and no such thing as confirmation turns out to be incorrect. Bayes' Theorem shows that falsification is very strong evidence compared to confirmation, but falsification is still probabilistic in nature; it is not governed by fundamentally different rules from confirmation, as Popper argued.
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky, An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes' Theorem.